The Illusion of Calm: Living Through Risk in an Unpredictable World
By Ozgur Unal Oztuna
While sitting in my living room in Doha, I suddenly heard the sounds of Iran’s attack on a U.S. airbase—just 40 km from where I live. At first, I couldn’t process what I was hearing. When I saw the news, I rushed to the balcony. In that moment, something became very clear: geopolitical risk is often spoken about in abstract terms—until it arrives on your doorstep. Then, it becomes something else entirely. Not a risk, but a terrifying reality. A waking nightmare.
Shortly afterward, U.S. President Trump declared the crisis over. But was it really? Were we truly safe again? And what about the challenges the world was already facing, long before this conflict?
By early 2025, one word had already defined the global mood: uncertainty. President Trump didn’t officially name it—but his decisions made it the reality. That uncertainty has seeped into both Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Advanced Economies (AEs), fuelled by trade wars, erratic policymaking, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Concerns about inflation, slowing growth, and fractured global supply chains are now commonplace.
Turkiye is feeling the strain from both global and domestic fronts. While international conflicts add pressure, the core challenge remains inflation—and the tight monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank to combat it. As of May 2025, inflation has eased to 35.4% from 44.4% at the end of 2024. Yet this progress comes at a steep cost to households and industries alike. High interest rates, persistent price instability, and political volatility continue to weigh heavily on the country’s economy.
The recent Iran-Israel conflict has momentarily cooled, but the calm feels fragile. The Middle East remains tense. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war persists in the background, still unresolved. All of this adds to the already heavy burden of global trade tensions and rising protectionism—much of it shaped by U.S. tariffs and erratic foreign policy.
During the recent turmoil, market focus shifted to Brent oil and gold prices. Contrary to expectations, there were no sharp spikes. Brent oil has settled back to around $65 after breaching $80 during the peak of the conflict. Gold (XAUUSD) remains stable at $3,312 as of June 24, after reaching a record $3,500.33 on April 22.
Back in Turkiye, the central bank has shown resolve, but monetary policy alone is not enough. Structural reforms aimed at boosting productivity, improving governance, and enhancing economic efficiency are essential. Only with these in place can Turkiye build long-term resilience against external shocks and unpredictable geopolitical events.
In conclusion, while the immediate threat of the Israel-Iran conflict may have receded, it served as a powerful reminder: global stability is an illusion. The world remains vulnerable to sudden conflicts, economic disruptions, and political surprises. In such a volatile environment, Turkiye—and indeed every nation—must prioritize resilience. Because in today’s world, it’s not a question of if the next crisis will hit—but when.